Does quantum computing technology make economic sense?
Certainly, quantum tech is advanced computing’s newest frontier. But less certain is whether quantum computers can solve a specific business challenge economically—and if not now, when.
Answering these questions is important. Before organizations invest in quantum systems, they want to establish a business case for doing so. That includes predicting when quantum initiatives will deliver a return on investment (ROI).
However, comparing quantum performance against that of traditional “classical” computer systems has proven challenging. In large part, that’s because their underlying technologies differ so dramatically.
Defining the quantum economic advantage
They key to overcoming this challenge is finding a way to identify the point of “economic advantage” — when quantum hardware can solve a given problem faster than a classical computer system that is comparably priced.
To help, a team of MIT researchers has developed the Quantum Economic Advantage (QEA) Online Calculator, a free online tool that cuts through quantum computing’s uncertainty.
When organizations enter specific problem types and technical requirements, the tool delivers two important results: Whether a quantum system will be able to outperform a classical system for the specific problem, and if so, when this advantage is likely to occur.
The calculator is getting high marks from business users.
“The feedback has generally been positive,” says Jayson Lynch, an MIT research scientist and member of the QEA Calculator’s development team. “We’ve had quite a few people ask about specific use cases their company is exploring.”
One powerful endorsement of the QEA Calculator comes from Carl Dukatz, global lead for quantum computing at Accenture and a member of the calculator’s development team.
“I use it all the time,” he says. “Our clients want to know when quantum tech will be ready for their business problems. The tool lets us be transparent about how the ecosystem is evolving.”
Profound differences in quantum vs. classical computing
The researchers saw a need for their calculator because comparing quantum and classical systems has been a challenge. Classical systems use silicon-based transistors, while quantum computers are built using atoms, electrons or photons.
Another difference is the transistor type. Classical system’s transistors are binary, meaning they’re in either one of two states. By contrast, a quantum system’s compute element—known as a qubit, short for quantum bit—can, like Schrodinger’s famous cat, exist in a nonbinary in-between state known as superposition.
For this and other related reasons, past efforts at comparing quantum and classical systems had only mixed success. While they provide insight into how quantum computers actually perform, these efforts failed to capture some quantum factors, including future performance, scalability and economic viability.
To overcome these barriers, the MIT QEA Calculator lets users enter a wide range of parameters, such as hardware specifications, algorithm runtimes and error-correcting code ratios. In this way, the tool lets users model the potential of a quantum system for a specific problem.
The tool also offers special features for both non-expert and advanced users. For non-experts, the tool provides default settings that simplify the process. More advanced users can fine-tune parameters that include hardware specifications and algo runtimes, then conduct detailed comparisons of custom algo’s and runtime scenarios.
The researchers say their tool can also help organizations set realistic expectations about what quantum systems can and can’t do economically. This, in turn, can help researchers better allocate resources, prioritize technologies, and even mitigate disillusionment.
Tortoise and the hare: Identifying quantum use cases
The QEA Calculator, built with open-source code, is based on an intellectual framework known as the Quantum Tortoise and Classical Hare.
The idea was originally presented in a 2023 paper by three researchers: Sukwoong Choi of University at Albany, William Moses of the University of Illinois, and Neil Thompson of MIT. (Thompson is also a member of the QEA Calculator’s development team.) They found that many small to medium-size problems will not benefit from quantum computing. But many larger problems will.
This is due to a surprising fact: Classical computers actually run faster than quantum systems. The advantages of quantum computing come from other capabilities, most notably the ability to sometimes run more efficient algorithms.
Quantum’s leap
Much like a common spreadsheet supplication, the QEA Calculator lets users adjust key inputs, then see how those changes affect the results. In the case of the QEA Calculator, those inputs include hardware speeds, qubit roadmaps and algorithmic runtimes.
The tool then generates visualizations of the results. The illustration below shows an example problem: integer factorization. Here, the QEA Calculator has estimated that an IBM quantum system will deliver an economic advantage in the year 2032.
To make this calculation, the tool’s roadmap predicts that the IBM system’s number of physical qubits will increase from roughly 300 now to 14,600 by 2032. Generally speaking, the more qubits a quantum computer has, the bigger the problem it can solve.
The Calculator also lets the user change the technical roadmap. For example, if you believe that 2032 forecast is either too optimistic or pessimistic, you can adjust it accordingly, then see the new result.
As an added benefit, the QEA framework has formed the basis for several research papers on quantum technology. These include a paper on the quantum advantage in chemistry in which the researchers found that quantum computing is better for calculations involving small to medium-sized molecules, while classical computers will likely remain the choice for calculations of larger molecules. As they explain, that’s because the algorithmic advantages of quantum systems can be overwhelmed by error correction, processor speed and other factors.
There’s more to come. “We plan to add more example problems and algorithms so it will be easier for people to find problems related to their area of interest,” explains Lynch. “We also plan to update roadmaps and the UI [user interface] design as we continue to get feedback.”
But there’s no need to wait. Business users wondering when quantum systems will be able to solve their problems can take the quantum leap and try the QEA Calculator now.
- Try the Quantum Economic Advantage Online Calculator
- Read the related working paper: Introducing the Quantum Economic Advantage Online Calculator
- Get smart with the MIT IDE’s Quantum Index Report
- Download a related research paper: Quantum Advantage in Computational Chemistry?
Peter Krass is a contributing writer and editor to the MIT IDE.