Quantum computing has the potential to transform industries in ways we’re only beginning to understand. The work being done today could accelerate drug discovery, advance materials science, reshape financial modeling, and fundamentally challenge how we think about cybersecurity. The potential for breakthrough innovation is driving significant investment from both private enterprise and governments worldwide, creating a new technology race to dominate this future industry.
In a new book, Priority Technologies: Ensuring US Security and Shared Prosperity (MIT Press, April 2026), MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy Research Scientist Jonathan Ruane and William D. Oliver, MIT Professor and Director of the Center for Quantum Engineering, outline where quantum investment and technology stand today
Their chapter, Quantum Computing: Enabling Long-Term US Leadership Through a Sustained and Bold Science and Engineering Agenda, also details where the tech is heading and who’s poised to win the quantum computing race.
Where Quantum Computing Stands Today
Quantum computers have moved beyond the theoretical and are commercially available today. Roughly 40 quantum processing units (QPUs) are accessible via cloud or on premises from two dozen firms worldwide. Their current scale is modest compared to the advances classical computing has made over the past 50 years, and no quantum computer has yet outperformed a classical system on any task that is commercially or practically useful.
The primary challenge still is achieving “quantum advantage,” or the point at which a quantum computer outperforms any classical system on a commercially meaningful task.
“The next critical milestone is developing a system powerful enough to perform a commercially useful task that no classical computer can replicate,” said Ruane. “There are still a lot of unknowns. The market potential estimates are all over the place, which reinforces just how difficult it is to forecast the timing of a technology still in its early stages.”
Three Takeaways on Where Quantum Computing Stands Today
Ruane and Oliver’s chapter offers robust data and policy analysis, with three business-relevant themes emerging.
The US leads but China is closing the gap fast
The US holds a clear advantage in private-sector investment, with firms like Google, IBM, Microsoft, and Amazon among the largest quantum investors in the world. The US also leads in commercially available quantum processors, with China offering 75% fewer such devices at lower performance levels.
China is the US’s biggest competitor, and its public investment is formidable. McKinsey estimates more than $15 billion in announced government funding across quantum technologies. And the quality of Chinese quantum patents is improving rapidly.
Perhaps most urgently, current US investment levels may not sufficient to sustain long term leadership. Ruane and Oliver caution against what they call a “quantum winter,” or a scenario in which funding falters, progress stalls, and researchers migrate out of the field.
“Quantum computing requires sustained, patient capital,” Ruane said. “A significant funding downturn would be deeply damaging, not unlike the AI winters of previous decades, when hype gave way to disappointment and the field lost a generation of talent and momentum.”
Cybersecurity is the sleeper threat
Quantum computers may eventually be capable of breaking the encryption systems that protect financial transactions, personal data, and national defense communications. Bad actors are likely already storing encrypted data today, intending to decrypt it once quantum capability matures.
NIST released a set of post-quantum encryption standards in 2024 but implementing them across all existing digital infrastructure represents an enormous and time-sensitive undertaking.
People matter as much as processors
The US talent pipeline may be the most underappreciated vulnerability in its quantum strategy. Training a quantum researcher takes at least a decade. Top graduates are being recruited away by financial services firms offering significantly higher salaries. And restrictive immigration policies are discouraging the international talent the US depends on. An American Physical Society survey found that nearly half of international researchers who chose not to come to the US cited feeling unwelcome as the reason.
What Public and Private Sectors Must Do to Win
Fund foundational research consistently
Predictable, long-term federal funding is essential. The US should have coordinated goals with clear applied science and engineering targets, not simply distributing money to individual labs. Two government programs, IARPA ELQ and DARPA QBI, are currently the only ones focused on larger-scale quantum systems and error correction. That needs to change.
Build and strengthen quantum ecosystems
The US has promising regional quantum hubs in Massachusetts, Chicago, Colorado, and California, but they need bolder directives and greater collaboration across academia, industry, and government. Expanding academic-industry partnerships and using models like the Semiconductor Research Corporation could accelerate progress significantly.
Invest in workforce at every level
From adding quantum computing concepts to K–12 curricula to expanding professional development programs like MIT xPRO, the pipeline needs sustained attention. Visa and immigration reform is equally critical, providing international STEM PhD graduates a clearer path to staying in the US would be a meaningful step.
Shore up the supply chain
Key quantum inputs, such as rare earth elements, helium-3, cryogenic components, and lasers, are heavily sourced from Europe, Asia, and China. The US needs to map its vulnerabilities, build domestic capacity, and work with allied nations to reduce dangerous dependencies before they become critical liabilities.
The road to quantum advantage is long, and the stakes are high. Achieving the full promise of quantum computing requires significant breakthroughs in both fundamental science and foundational engineering.
“The United States has the research universities, the private sector investment, and the ecosystem foundation to lead,” said Ruane. “But only if it commits to the sustained, coordinated effort this technology demands.”
Get the Book
Priority Technologies: Ensuring US Security and Shared Prosperity is available now from MIT Press.
A new world order is taking shape — shifting supply chains, climate pressures, and transformative technologies are converging to create both uncertainty and opportunity. To secure its national and economic interests, the US must double down on the frontier technologies that will define the coming decades. Edited by Elisabeth Reynolds, this volume examines six priority technologies — critical minerals, semiconductors, biomanufacturing, quantum computing, drones, and advanced manufacturing — and makes the case for building the innovation and industrial ecosystems needed to keep the US competitive, secure, and prosperous.
Contributors: Simon Johnson, Elisabeth B. Reynolds, Elsa A. Olivetti, Jesús del Alamo, J. Christopher Love, William D. Oliver, Jonathan Ruane, Fiona E. Murray
Order your copy at MIT Press →